“Preaching to the Choir: A Problem of Participatory Interventions.” w/ Rebecca Hanson and Tara Slough.
» Accepted conditional on replication, Journal of Politics.
» [paper][appendix][data]

“The Illusory End of Stop-and-Frisk in Chicago?” w/ David Hausman.
» Science Advances, 2023.
» [paper and appendix][data]
» Press: [ABC Chicago][Science News]

“Backsliding by Surprise: The Rise of Chavismo” w/ Barry Plunkett and Pedro Rodríguez.
» Political Science Research and Methods, 2023.
» [pdf][journal][data]

“Do shifts in late-counted votes signal fraud? Evidence from Bolivia” w/ Nicolás Idrobo and Francisco Rodríguez.
» Journal of Politics, 2022.
» [pdf][journal][data]
» Press: [NYT][Crisis Group]

» [OAS Response][Nooruddin's Response][Our Response to Nooruddin]

“Does Community Policing Build Trust in Police and Reduce Crime? Evidence from Six Coordinated Field Experiments in the Global South” Graeme Blair, Jeremy Weinstein, Fotini Christia, and 20 others.
» Science, 2021.
» [pdf][appendix][journal][data]

“Friends Don’t Let Friends Free Ride” w/ Nick Eubank.
» Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 2021
» [final draft][appendix][journal][data]

“The Arbitrage Lobby: The Political Economy of Dual Exchange Rates” w/ Robert Gulotty.
» International Organization, 2021
» [pdf][appendix][journal]

“The Majoritarian Threat to Liberal Democracy” w/ Guy Grossman, Matt Levendusky, and Marc Meredith.
» Journal of Experimental Political Science, 2021
» [pdf][appendix][journal][data]

“The Logic of Violence in Drug War” w/ Juan Camilo Castillo.
» American Political Science Review, 2020
» [pdf][appendix][journal]

“Profits and Violence in Illegal Markets: Evidence from Venezuela”
» Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2020
» [pdf][final draft + appendix][journal] [data]


“On Unfounded Claims of Electoral Fraud,” w/ Nicolás Idrobo and Francisco Rodríguez.
Under review.

“Collateral Censorship: Theory and Evidence from Venezuela,” w/ John Marshall.

“The Political Economy of Depolicing: Evidence from Colombia,” w/ Nicolás Idrobo.

“Official Vigilantism,” w/ Rebecca Hanson.

Book Chapters

“Political Conflict and Economic Growth in Venezuela” w/ Francisco Rodríguez.
Chapter for TA New Economic History of Latin America, Under contract with Palgrave Macmillan.

“The Problem with Venezuelan Homicide Data” w/ Josbelk Gonzalez. [pdf]
Chapter for The Paradox of Violence in Venezuela, Under contract with Pittsburgh University Press.

"Do Police–Community Meetings Work? Experimental Evidence from Colombia" w/ Eric Arias, Rebecca Hanson, and Tara Slough. Chapter for Crime, Insecurity, and Community Policing, Under contract with Cambridge University Press.


"In Memoriam: Francisco Cantú” Political Science Today, 2/15/2024.
"In Memoriam: Frank Safford” Political Science Today, 8/23/2022.
"What’s the Population of Venezuela?” Caracas Chronicles, 7/11/2020.
“The New Venezuelan Exceptionalism,” PEPALE Issue Brief, 2/23/2020.
“A Victim of Maduro’s Brutality Speaks,” The Washington Post, 7/17/2019.
“After the Massacre,” Caracas Chronicles, 3/22/2019.
“Who are the Pemon of Kumarakapay?” Caracas Chronicles, 3/7/2019.
“Trump Needs a Backup Plan in Venezuela,” The New York Times, 2/28/2019.
“Teodoro’s Mission Impossible,” Caracas Chronicles, 11/13/2018.
“Venezuela’s Last Statesman,” The New York Times, 11/7/2018.
“150: Fraud or Fatigue?” Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights, 10/26/2017.
“How to Count the Dead,” Caracas Chronicles, 7/1/2016.
“Why Wreck the Economy Before an Election?” The Monkey Cage, 12/4/2015.
“Venezuela’s Currency Circus,” The New York Times w/ Francisco Toro, 3/6/2015.
“Why Only Half of Venezuelans are in the Streets,” FiveThirtyEight, 3/17/2014.
“Could it be that the murder rate did peak in 2008?” Caracas Chronicles, 1/30/2014.
“Hugo Chávez’s Legacy” (book review), The New Republic, 3/6/2013.
“What’s behind Venezuela’s violent crime problem?” Al Jazeera English, 12/18/2011.
“Los Límites de Chávez,” AméricaEconomía, 12/10/2008.
“Sabemos lo que falta,” Hispanic American Center for Economic Research, 10/30/2007.
“Crónica Anunciada,” AméricaEconomía, 9/7/2007.
“Hugo Chávez’s Television Crisis,” The American Prospect, 6/6/2007.
“The Kingdom of Darkness: Hugo Chávez’s Bait & Switch,” The New Republic, 5/24/2007.
“The Empire Strikes Back,” The New Republic, 12/1/2006.