Peer-Reviewed
Journal Articles

“Preaching to the Choir: A Problem of Participatory Interventions.” w/ Rebecca Hanson and Tara Slough.
» Accepted, Journal of Politics.
» [paper][appendix][data]

“The Illusory End of Stop-and-Frisk in Chicago?” w/ David Hausman.
» Science Advances, 2023.
» [paper and appendix][data]
» Press: [ABC Chicago][Science News]

“Backsliding by Surprise: The Rise of Chavismo” w/ Barry Plunkett and Pedro Rodríguez.
» Political Science Research and Methods, 2023.
» [pdf][journal][data]

“Do shifts in late-counted votes signal fraud? Evidence from Bolivia” w/ Nicolás Idrobo and Francisco Rodríguez.
» Journal of Politics, 2022.
» [pdf][journal][data]
» Press: [NYT][Crisis Group]

» [OAS Response][Nooruddin's Response][Our Response to Nooruddin]

“Does Community Policing Build Trust in Police and Reduce Crime? Evidence from Six Coordinated Field Experiments in the Global South” Graeme Blair, Jeremy Weinstein, Fotini Christia, and 20 others.
» Science, 2021.
» [pdf][appendix][journal][data]

“Friends Don’t Let Friends Free Ride” w/ Nick Eubank.
» Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 2021
» [final draft][appendix][journal][data]

“The Arbitrage Lobby: The Political Economy of Dual Exchange Rates” w/ Robert Gulotty.
» International Organization, 2021
» [pdf][appendix][journal]

“The Majoritarian Threat to Liberal Democracy” w/ Guy Grossman, Matt Levendusky, and Marc Meredith.
» Journal of Experimental Political Science, 2021
» [pdf][appendix][journal][data]

“The Logic of Violence in Drug War” w/ Juan Camilo Castillo.
» American Political Science Review, 2020
» [pdf][appendix][journal]

“Profits and Violence in Illegal Markets: Evidence from Venezuela”
» Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2020
» [pdf][final draft + appendix][journal] [data]


Editor-Reviewed
Journal Articles

“How Maduro Stole Venezuela's Vote” w/ Javier Corrales.
» Journal of Democracy, 2025
» [pdf][journal]
» Press: [El País][Christian Science Monitor][Tal Cual][Appunti]

“Rural Households in a Changing Climate” w/ Javier Baez and Andy Mason.
» World Bank Research Observer, 2013
» [journal]


Working
Papers

“Official Vigilantism,” w/ Rebecca Hanson.
R&R, World Development (part of a special issue on institutional reform).

“On Unfounded Claims of Electoral Fraud,” w/ Nicolás Idrobo and Francisco Rodríguez.
R&R, World Development.

“Collateral Censorship: Theory and Evidence from Venezuela,” w/ John Marshall.

“The Effect of Oversight on the Quantity and Quality of Policing,” w/ Nicolás Idrobo and Tara Slough.


Peer-Reviewed
Book Chapters

“Political Conflict and Economic Growth in Venezuela” w/ Francisco Rodríguez.
Chapter for TA New Economic History of Latin America, Under contract with Palgrave Macmillan.

“The Problem with Venezuelan Homicide Data” w/ Josbelk Gonzalez. [pdf]
Chapter for The Paradox of Violence in Venezuela, Under contract with Pittsburgh University Press.

"Do Police–Community Meetings Work? Experimental Evidence from Colombia" w/ Eric Arias, Rebecca Hanson, and Tara Slough. Chapter for Crime, Insecurity, and Community Policing, Under contract with Cambridge University Press.


Policy
Papers

"On the validity of vote counts published by the Venezuelan opposition" (2024) [Spanish]
» Press: [The Guardian (2)][The Guardian][Caracas Chronicles][Infobae][Panorama][La Tercera][Expresso]

"Monitoring Monitoring: Assessing Results Measurement at the World Bank," w/ Daniel Cotlear (2010)


Other
Writing

"In Memoriam: Francisco Cantú” Political Science Today, 2/15/2024.
"In Memoriam: Frank Safford” Political Science Today, 8/23/2022.
"What’s the Population of Venezuela?” Caracas Chronicles, 7/11/2020.
“The New Venezuelan Exceptionalism,” PEPALE Issue Brief, 2/23/2020.
“A Victim of Maduro’s Brutality Speaks,” The Washington Post, 7/17/2019.
“After the Massacre,” Caracas Chronicles, 3/22/2019.
“Who are the Pemon of Kumarakapay?” Caracas Chronicles, 3/7/2019.
“Trump Needs a Backup Plan in Venezuela,” The New York Times, 2/28/2019.
“Teodoro’s Mission Impossible,” Caracas Chronicles, 11/13/2018.
“Venezuela’s Last Statesman,” The New York Times, 11/7/2018.
“150: Fraud or Fatigue?” Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights, 10/26/2017.
“How to Count the Dead,” Caracas Chronicles, 7/1/2016.
“Why Wreck the Economy Before an Election?” The Monkey Cage, 12/4/2015.
“Venezuela’s Currency Circus,” The New York Times w/ Francisco Toro, 3/6/2015.
“Why Only Half of Venezuelans are in the Streets,” FiveThirtyEight, 3/17/2014.
“Could it be that the murder rate did peak in 2008?” Caracas Chronicles, 1/30/2014.
“Hugo Chávez’s Legacy” (book review), The New Republic, 3/6/2013.
“What’s behind Venezuela’s violent crime problem?” Al Jazeera English, 12/18/2011.
“Los Límites de Chávez,” AméricaEconomía, 12/10/2008.
“Sabemos lo que falta,” Hispanic American Center for Economic Research, 10/30/2007.
“Crónica Anunciada,” AméricaEconomía, 9/7/2007.
“Hugo Chávez’s Television Crisis,” The American Prospect, 6/6/2007.
“The Kingdom of Darkness: Hugo Chávez’s Bait & Switch,” The New Republic, 5/24/2007.
“The Empire Strikes Back,” The New Republic, 12/1/2006.