“The Logic of Violence in Drug War” [article] w/ Juan Camilo Castillo.
American Political Science Review, 2020.

‘Profits and Violence in Illegal Markets: Evidence from Venezuela” [article] [data]
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2020.


“The Arbitrage Lobby: The Political Economy of Dual Exchange Rates” [pdf] w/ Robert Gulotty.

“Policing Police” [pdf] w/ David Hausman.
Under Review.

“Friends Don’t Let Friends Free Ride” [pdf] w/ Nick Eubank.
Under review.

“Let the Majority Rule” [pdf] w/ Guy Grossman, Matt Levendusky, and Marc Meredith.
Under review.

“Do shifts in late-counted votes signal fraud? Evidence from Bolivia” [pdf] w/ Nicolás Idrobo and Francisco Rodríguez.
Under review. Press: [NYT][Crisis Group][OAS Response]


“The Problem with Venezuelan Homicide Data” w/ Josbelk Gonzalez. [pdf]
Chapter for edited volume The Paradox of Violence in Venezuela

“Opposition Media and Political Accountability: Evidence from Venezuela,” w/ John Marshall.
Working paper.

“Selling Democratic Subversion: The Rise of Chavismo” w/ Barry Plunkett and Pedro Rodríguez.
Working paper.

“The Construction of Trust in the State: Evidence from Colombia.” w/ Eric Arias, Rebecca Hanson, and Tara Slough.
In progress.

“Property Rights and Violence in Rural Mexico” w/ Francisco Garfias and Nicolás Idrobo.
In progress.

“Official Vigilantism” w/ Rebecca Hanson.
In progress.


“A Victim of Maduro’s Brutality Speaks,” The Washington Post, 7/17/2019.
“After the Massacre,” Caracas Chronicles, 3/22/2019.
“Who are the Pemon of Kumarakapay?” Caracas Chronicles, 3/7/2019.
“Trump Needs a Backup Plan in Venezuela,” The New York Times, 2/28/2019.
“Teodoro’s Mission Impossible,” Caracas Chronicles, 11/13/2018.
“Venezuela’s Last Statesman,” The New York Times, 11/7/2018.
“150: Fraud or Fatigue?” Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights, 10/26/2017.
“How to Count the Dead,” Caracas Chronicles, 7/1/2016.
“Why Wreck the Economy Before an Election?” The Monkey Cage, 12/4/2015.
“Venezuela’s Currency Circus,” The New York Times w/ Francisco Toro, 3/6/2015.
“Why Only Half of Venezuelans are in the Streets,” FiveThirtyEight, 3/17/2014.
“Could it be that the murder rate did peak in 2008?” Caracas Chronicles, 1/30/2014.
“Hugo Chávez’s Legacy” (book review), The New Republic, 3/6/2013.
“What’s behind Venezuela’s violent crime problem?” Al Jazeera English, 12/18/2011.
“Los Límites de Chávez,” AméricaEconomía, 12/10/2008.
“Sabemos lo que falta,” Hispanic American Center for Economic Research, 10/30/2007.
“Crónica Anunciada,” AméricaEconomía, 9/7/2007.
“Hugo Chávez’s Television Crisis,” The American Prospect, 6/6/2007.
“The Kingdom of Darkness: Hugo Chávez’s Bait & Switch,” The New Republic, 5/24/2007.
“The Empire Strikes Back,” The New Republic, 12/1/2006.